| | |  | Last Updated: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 |  | | | Gambling on the NFL Already
- Thursday, 20 Apr 2006
It seems like you just read articles about gambling on the Super Bowl, and that NFL season will take at least several more months to start over again. But the truth is, you can already start gambling on your favorite NFL teams now at one online gambling site. The sportsbook not only gives gambling odds on the upcoming NFL season, but they are also giving tips on how to make your bets. The season kicks off in less than five months when the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers host the Miami Dolphins in the Thursday night opener, but Pinnacle Sports has already posted lines on every game in week one. But how does a player handicap the first week’s games and find an edge this far out?
As a starting point, look at the relationship between season wins and the first week point spreads before gambling on your favorite teams. An average team would expect to win 50% of the time or eight games in a 16-game regular season. How many games would a team expect to win, if it was a three-point favorite for each game? First convert the fair no-vig moneyline (ML) into a "percentage chance of winning" for each game. For favorites, that’s the (ML quote / (ML - 100)) * 100. If the fair no-vig moneyline for a three-point favorite is -145/+145, expect the three-point favorite to win (-145 /(-145-100)) * 100 = 59% of the time. If a team was a three-point favorite for every game, it’d expect to win 16*0.59 games, or about 9.5 games.
Although not an exact science, this can be used to convert season win lines into a game line for the first week. For every ½ game better the favorite is in season wins, it should give an additional 1 point on the spread at a neutral site. If a 9.5-win team played an 8-win team, the 9.5-win team would be three-point favorites on a neutral field. After that, add three points for home field advantage, so the 9.5-win team would be six-point favorites at home, or Pick’em on the road. | |
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